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« Reply #45 on: October 28, 2015, 07:03:59 AM »

Re Leah Remini`s 20/20 interview.. 

From Comments on Tony Ortega`s blog...

John P. • 7 hours ago
The PR that will fall out of this interview will be pretty awesome. An entire prime time hour devoted to exposing the insanity of this organization could easly be the biggest single PR "flap" of the year, perhaps even bigger than Alex Gibney's documentary, though the comparison is not intended to minimize the effect of that film. Comparisons are perhaps not all that important, since in both cases, millions of people will see these programs and will decide that Scientology is more toxic than radioactive goat turds -- it almost doesn't matter which one has more millions of viewers, since the magnitude in both cases is pretty awesome.

But the thing that will really send Miscavige over the edge is the idea that the KR's concerning Leah Remini and her husband were leaked by others in the cult, not by Leah herself, and that the leak went straight to Tony. The number of people who had access to those documents has to have been relatively small. And given the fact that they're filed through the celebrity Ethics apparatus, the people involve have to be hand-picked and highly trusted. After all, they're involved in funneling stuff directly to Miscavige for his voyeuristic pleasure, and that's a secret that must be kept quiet.

The relatively weak denials to the external press (no lawsuit threats from Bert Fields or Marty Singer, or even from D-Team bottom-of-the-barrel attorney Gary Soter) might suggest that Miscavige thinks he has the damage from this TV appearance in hand. But the revelation of this leak ought to send him absolutely and completely into orbit. I certainly wouldn't like to be anyone within a couple of miles of the Celebrity Centre for the next couple of weeks as the sec checkers get really busy.

Well played, Tony, well played!

http://tonyortega.org/2015/10/27/the-leah-remini-files-an-exclusive-look-at-the-krs-that-inform-her-memoir/
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« Reply #46 on: February 14, 2016, 07:11:42 AM »

 John P. •  Comment on Tony Ortega`s blog...

Link at bottom of this ...

I'm very gratified to see that Burkhart's estimate of the membership numbers cross-check reasonably well with the 20,000-25,000 worldwide that I came up with after some extensive research to generate bottom-up estimates two years ago... with recent declines, the 20,000 number is what I'd be going with if asked. Given that a couple weeks ago people were still waving around a 40,000 person estimate, I think it's time for us all (including you, Tony!) to converge and say that multiple informed sources put the number at around 20,000.

It's also potentially important to note that if there were only 8,000 distinct customers who bought The Basics, given the 20,000-25,000 membership level at that time (including 5,000 staff), that means that around 10,000 active members did not purchase that giant box of drivel. Many of that group of 10,000 were perhaps economically unable to come up with the $3,000 to buy even one set of The Basics, even after multiple credit reviews and offers to take out loans helpfully made by all those predatory callers.

But I would suspect that the majority of the 10,000+ members who did not buy The Basics were successfully able to tell the dozens of people calling every day to bugger off. In other words, they were successfully able to resist the pressure across hundreds of phone calls, people showing up on their doorsteps at midnight, etc. That suggests that the "sideliner" or "under the radar" crowd is both a) more numerous and b) more powerful than before. It also suggests that the cult has reached some sort of truce with the "under the radar" crowd or there would probably have been far more defections and disconnections than the already high number that took place during The Basics campaign.

Edited to add: I seem to recall hearing that they sold perhaps 30,000 sets of The Basics in total, which totals about $100 million in total revenue, of which I'd estimate that $75 million turned into profit through Author Services. I'd have to wonder whether this was a significant source of personal income for Miscavige, given that his last post before deposing his rivals to take over the whole organization was as head of Author Services. Remember that ASI is a profit-making entity and that it is thus not subject to rules against inurement that apply to the non-profit rest of the cult's operations. As a result, Miscavige could help himself to the royalty stream from the book sales without running afoul of tax laws (though there's always potential for fraud for looting the company if he's not empowered by the board to do that, I sincerely doubt that anyone looking to investigate it will be able to find any of the paperwork necessary to prove he wasn't supposed to do that).

I'll sniff around next week to see if there's any way to find out of Scientology has applied for broadcast licenses. I haven't any experience with this and I'm not sure if any of my colleagues at Global Capitalism HQ have done anything like that, since the game in broadcasting these days is not creation of new licenses (i.e., building more radio & TV stations) but hanging on to the audience the existing ones have gotten. Incidentally, I suspect that the issue is not getting a license per se but getting space on the broadcast spectrum, particularly for radio. Most major radio markets are pretty saturated at this point, and I don't think the cult would do itself any favors by taking over a 2,000 watt repeater in, say, Tehachapi California.

At this point, Internet-based streaming is the future, and that doesn't require a broadcast license. Of course, the cult is not terribly up to date on current media trends, else they would no longer be set up to manufacture tons of CD's or even DVD's (I wonder if they're still manufacturing cassette tapes as well).

Best line from the whole piece, and perhaps one of the most archly understated observations about Scientology ever: "This thing is so over-promoted."

http://tonyortega.org/2016/02/13/scientologys-space-man-as-of-2013-active-scientologists-fewer-than-20000-worldwide/
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« Reply #47 on: March 14, 2016, 07:40:40 AM »

               OrgBoat is a new software package that helps you run your company according to the Hubbard Method of Business Management. It is web based, free for five or fewer employees, and includes features for running your HR department according to Scientology policy. The web site for OrgBoat doesn’t mention Scientology, but in social media posts the connection is clear.                         


John P. •   Responds...

1. I believe you misspelled the name of the bizarre Brooklyn dentist addressing the Rockland County legislature. It's Fialkoff but you had written Failkoff. Never mind, I like your spelling better.

2. We in Global Capitalism HQ know the odd thing or two about investing in software companies that run businesses. We were early investors in Salesforce.com, SAP, PeopleSoft, Workday and virtually every other business management software company of any consequence to appear in the last 30 years (never mind our investments in infrastructure software and internet giants like Microsoft, Oracle, Google Facebook, etc., etc., etc.). Modesty prevents me from disclosing my role in most of these deals, but it's central to my work at the globe-girdling titan of investment.

I can assure you that automating Hubbard's "admin tech" would take a substantial investment in R&D. Even though the total cash reserves of Scientology are around $1.5 billion (meaning they could ultimately write the check), you're talking about distilling about 2,500 pages of Hubbard drivel into software. I really don't think that the cult or even any of its larger whales could underwrite the investment of $25 to $200 million that it would take at this point to create a fully-featured hosted e-business application that would run a company. More importantly, I don't think they'd be able to find a management team able to do the job. It's not a function of being able to hire a bunch of people in Bangalore or Manila, but it's a function of being able to find people who understand the concepts of "admin tech" and who have a track record for running a team big enough to get the job done.

A quick look at the domain registration shows that OrgBoat.com is owned by "Neurons Art & Technology" in Hollywood (misspelled "Holywood" in the domain name record). The initial domain name registration was in June 2014. Googling that company comes up with only one associated individual, one Jose Abella Eggleton. There don't appear to be any other individuals associated with "Neurons Art & Technology" that I can find. Eggleton is listed in the Scientology Completions database. There doesn't appear to be much of a sales effort; there's one ad in a freelance contractor recruitment site looking for sales help. Minimal web presence for this application and company overall.

I thus come to a conclusion that one of the Global Capitalism HQ summer interns would be expected to reach in only a few minutes of diligent research: it's a one-man part-time operation and thus, we can all breathe a sigh of relief, that the cult has not found some new, clever and modern way to bring Hubbard "tech" to a world desperately demanding it. It's just another one of the many LA-based one-person Scientologist-run web design shops trying to rope in a few Scientology clients...

http://tonyortega.org/2016/03/13/john-travolta-and-his-ancient-galactic-friends-celebrate-scientologys-holiest-day-of-the-year/
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« Reply #48 on: March 27, 2016, 07:55:43 AM »

                                           Comment at Tonyortega.org             


 John P. • 7 hours ago

Oh, goody! An opportunity for an analysis of financial information. As a member of Global Capitalism HQ who does corporate financial analysis for a living, I am duty bound to comment on Scientology Ireland's financials.

    In terms of possible risks that might impact on the company’s financial position, the directors listed “uncertainty of continued services due to general society problems.”

I would suggest that this sentence from the auditor's report (note: real accounting auditors, not pretend mental health professional auditors as the term is used in Scientology) might mean something different from the interpretation that Tony provides. This actually sounds to me like what US financial professionals call a "going concern opinion." In other words, the auditors' opinion says that the company is in sufficiently bad shape (accumulated losses, etc.) that they are concerned that it can't continue as a viable operation, and is expected to go out of business within the next year if something doesn't change. I should note that this standard is an estimate, and doesn't reflect the actual plans of the cult's Irish operation.

Second thing that's interesting is that they had a loss of 19 Euros. That sounds incredibly lame. To avoid a "going concern" warning, they should have somehow been able to tweak the numbers to show a small profit, even 100 Euros. So the fact that they are still in the red (albeit by a tiny amount) says to me that they pulled out all the stops to try and look like they're profitable but just couldn't do anything else that would pass muster by the auditors.

The third point to look at here is the jump in revenue. Miscavige may even cite this result as "proof" that the cult is booming. But we in Global Capitalism HQ know that small numbers can vary substantially from year to year without real meaning. It's particularly dangerous to try to use numbers like this to suggest that the cult is expanding overall, particularly given the bizarre accounting principles that Scientology uses.

In particular, the cult books deposits for services to be delivered in the future as revenue (i.e., as sales) instead of posting it as a liability (something that it might have to repay). While it is entirely possible that the revenue jump is due to increased sales of low-level courses to OT's who are being forced to redo earlier levels, it's possible that this spike in revenue is deposits for services not yet delivered. I would guess that the bump in revenue thus is a handful of people putting money on account rather than actual low-level services being delivered. I'd suspect it could be something as simple as a handful of people signing up for the Purification Rundown (the sauna treatment to sweat out nonexistent "drug residue") but not yet availing themselves of it. That's 20,000 Euros right there. The point is that it doesn't take much to move the needle when you're dealing with small numbers, and a large positive (or negative) percentage change is not all that meaningful. I thus would be deeply suspicious that anything has actually improved in the operating picture for the cult in Ireland.

I recall some fairly good numbers that suggest the number of active Scientologists in Ireland is approximately 50 total, and that number is unlikely to have changed significantly in the last year. That's relatively proportional in a population of 4.5 million to the approximately 1,600 non-staff Scientologists in the UK (2,400 from 2011 Census less an estimate of 800 staff at Saint Hill and all orgs) in the UK, which has a population of 64 million.

Could overall Irish income levels support a jump in per-customer revenue to 1,700 Euros per customer? Looking at data from Ireland's Nevin Economic Research Institute published in 2013, it appears that the top 30% of Irish households had income of approximately 70,000 Euros per year. I couldn't get data specific to the Dublin metropolitan area, so I'll use this as a proxy, given my recollections of the significantly lower price levels outside the capital city. For a family of two married Scientologists to take their average donation to the cult up from 900 Euros to 1,700 Euros over the course of a year thus doesn't seem all that improbable when considering household disposable income of the target audience.

I strongly suspect that the boost in revenue is essentially "noise" in the numbers. If there is a reader with knowledge of the Irish charitable reporting system that can provide a link to the actual financial statements filed with the government (which I don't have time to get to today; I'm already late for an outing with the supermodels and a couple of the MBA interns to the waterfront estate to open the place for the season), I will take a look tomorrow night and will post further thoughts then.


http://tonyortega.org/2016/03/26/talking-scientology-with-actor-and-podcaster-ethan-mckinley/
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« Reply #49 on: April 30, 2016, 08:29:39 AM »

 John P. • 8 hours ago

OK, let's try a Global Capitalism HQ analytical dive into these nuggets, to try and connect the dots to make some future predictions about possible individual defections from Scientology and about the future of the organization.

1.) The celebrity focus falls apart completely. I continue to doubt that Cruise and Travolta will leave the cult or denounce it publicly even if they're no longer believers. They continue to fade away quietly. Looking at donor records, I think we know they're no longer giving significant money to various causes; we've seen a couple of token donations from Travolta and Preston but nothing major. Kirstie Alley and Nancy Cartwright are true believers and will not distance themselves from the cult and may occasionally speak publicly, but their careers are largely past their peak and any influence they have on the public continues to slip. Other long-time members like Chick Corea are also in the twilight of their careers and are mainly irrelevant.

What's more interesting is the next generation of stars, like the Ribisis who are second-generation, are likely to fall away, and we could see some interesting meltdowns. These are the Beck, Laura Prepon, and similar types who aren't members of multi-generation families where leaving will be a lot harder. They'll see that increasing public hostility and/or contempt towards Scientology make it a career liability and not an asset. They'll especially see that there's no longer a benefit in terms of a Scientology "mafia" to help them get hired.

2.) As a special case of the declining impact of the cult in entertainment, the escalating Lisa Marie Presley situation bears watching, particularly if her family (most notably including mother Priscilla) leaves the cult en masse. This is extremely important because it would be the second star with a large cult family after Leah Remini to leave successfully and to avoid disconnection. Both Lisa Marie and Priscilla are not as visible in their careers as they were, so the real impact of their entire family defecting is to underscore the fact that there's less risk of disconnection than there was. It's less about the negative PR impact of another visible celebrity defecting and turning on the church, than about showing the way for other members who are "under the radar" to protect against their kids disconnecting that it's OK to leave. There will still be some risk to disconnection but people may be encouraged to try to get their families out instead of suffering in silence.

3.) Disconnection becomes seen as a reality among the general public in the wake of media coverage of the Phil & Willie Jones billboard. They reached an audience of something like 15 million people with the story of the billboard. That's a watershed in reinforcing the meme of "Scientology destroys families." The TomKat divorce cemented the meme "Scientology is weird" in the minds of tens if not hundreds of millions of people. As a result, the already feeble trickle of recruiting dried up even further. But that broadest-ever media exposure did nothing to get people out of the cult.

The story of Sara Goldberg's tragic disconnection situation was a linchpin but given that it was covered in the "Going Clear" documentary, it was relatively easy for current cult members to dodge because the cult told people well in advance that it was coming and thus they could avoid watching it. The Jones family saga, carried in so many markets with relatively little advance notice, was harder to dodge and thus likely reached far more members still in the cult who may have missed or minimized the Goldberg story.

For people outside the cult, a second story within the space of little more than a year cemented the reality of disconnection. It's no longer a rumor. It's a fact. Any more stories in the wake of the Jones billboard saga will probably take the meme to the next level: "why can't we do anything about this?"

4.) The Ron Miscavige saga, especially to the extent that it receives secondary coverage beyond primary scheduled in-depth programming like tonight's 20/20 interview, will bring into question the legitimacy of David Miscavige as Scientology's leader. Again, a marquee programming event like the 20/20 broadcast will be easy for the cult to push its members away from, but secondary coverage, typically with little advance publicity, which could refer back to the 20/20 show, will be harder for members to dodge.

I know from talking to a number of ex-Scientologists, including some long-time auditors and big donors, that they knew very little about Miscavige when they were in the cult. They always assumed that top management was working ceaselessly and effectively behind the scenes to run things. They had no idea of the ineptitude and distraction that Miscavige brings to his management style, much less about the beatings, the Hole and all the rest of the insanity and sadism.

It is impossible to predict whether a "coup" will occur even if Miscavige's image is decimated within rank-and-file cult members. For one thing, if you look at the "bench" of management "talent" inside the organization, it's quite thin. Like any third-world dictatorship, anyone competent was purged long ago, and those who remain have highly compartmentalized and specialized responsibilities and don't see the "whole picture" that Miscavige sees. Thus even if there is a fairly sharp potential successor to pick as a Miscavige replacement, they don't have the vision to understand the state of the entire organization and thus have no preparation to try to deal with the mess.

Importantly, given that there's no functioning oversight mechanism, it's not clear that there is anyone with the power to anoint a successor. And even if there is, in my conversations with J. Swift and others who have focused on the role of "wog experts" in the cult, I believe that the finances are controlled by highly-paid outside consultants (think: attorney Monique Yingling and others deeper in the shadows) with personal loyalty to Miscavige. They may either block a successor who won't protect their interests (i.e., their huge annual retainer payments) or may simply resign their posts and leave the organization unable to operate.

While Miscavige's removal at the top of the organization without a viable succession plan already in place is the closest thing to a death knell for the cult that we could imagine, I caution strongly against hoping too much that it'll happen soon. Much more bad press about Miscavige needs to come out -- not just that he's not a super-Scientologist to admire, but about how he's driving the organization into the ground and wasting donor money, before rank and file members will demand his replacement. Miscavige will definitely leave the organization suddenly, whether that's in a coffin, in a coup, or in a flee-with-the-money escape ahead of a criminal indictment. Any of those scenarios is extremely difficult to predict and thus to help accelerate it.

My recommendation here is to continue to explore Miscavige's incompetence and how he's undermining the cult with his incompetence. The Ron Miscavige story is an opening to get members to realize that Miscavige is destroying Scientology, but we need to keep filling in more evidence behind this initial opening. It's a long-term project, with the biggest payoff of these different threads, but also with the biggest work involved.

5.) The meme that "Scientology is shriveling" in the basis of plenty of coverage here, anchored by Skip Young's story, will continue to grow stronger and drive first-generation members out of the cult. This, however, is probably the weakest thread of those I discuss here. It's important to keep bringing evidence of more fail to the attention of older rank-and-file members as they joined the cult to achieve personal super power. Feeling like a winner in life is essential to keeping these members engaged, hence the endless lies about "straight up and vertical 47x expansion," the gaudy trophies for status levels, and the plush (though empty) Ideal Orgs that mark a successful religion that is desirable to belong to.

Continuing revelation of the lies around that success will help the older members, patriarchs and matriarchs of multi-generation cult families, to reduce their attachment to the cult. There are some families where the adults may no longer be true believers but the second and third generation are the true believers. Especially in the cases where the kids have been dragooned into the Sea Org, which has a very intentional side effect of keeping parents loyal, the "Scientology is shriveling" meme will not work, and may cause further disconnection agony. But in cases where the first generation are the loyal members and the second generation are wavering, weakening of the "Scientology is for winners" meme that people bought in on years ago will help get entire families out.

We need to continue to show evidence that the cult is failing. Mike Rinder's daily blog mocking their failures, as well as Tony's pieces on the subject are the way to go here -- I wouldn't count on broadcast TV to do this. So we just need to keep doing what we're doing. The payoff will be more entire families popping out when they realize that the last true believers in the family -- the first generation -- is ready to leave. But, sadly and also unavoidably, this will come at a cost in some cases where the older generation wakes up, realizes that the cult is failing, broaches the subject of leaving with their kids, and finds out that the kids are still true believers. Either way, though, the subject of Scientology's failure will upset the status quo and will make something happen.


http://tonyortega.org/2016/04/29/ron-miscavige-his-book-ruthless-his-nervous-son-and-scientology-watchings-new-reality/
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« Reply #50 on: August 16, 2017, 02:06:50 PM »

                                John P. • 15th August 2017.

 Re First episode of Leah Remini`s second series of Scientology the aftermath...

Edited to add: I am reeling because of something I just learned. It turns out that tonight's story will likely touch me far more deeply than I was expecting. The family member sexually abused by clergy that I refer to below in the original comment is me. I was molested by a minister at a church camp the summer after 4th grade, 50 years ago. This is the first time I'm saying this publicly, so it's fairly intimidating to write this, but I feel I need to go public now because of the importance of this issue.

The name "Canyon Oaks" triggered an echo. I did a little digging and discovered that what is now "Canyon Oaks Ranch" was, 50 years ago, called "Camp Canyon Oaks." By some terrible, tragic coincidence, the site that plays a role in tonight's show is the very place where I was abused. The Google Maps view features the same buildings in the same layout that I recall so vividly from that time. For some odd reason, I still remember the address from writing it in letters I sent home during those two weeks. I would bet everything I own that it's the same place. As you can imagine, my heart stopped and I'm still trying to hold it together two hours later. I'm not likely to get much done at work today...

So I know firsthand what it is like to suffer abuse at the hands of "religious" authority figures. I know how it can eat you alive for decades. I enjoyed the trappings of success but I was being eaten away inside by the demons unleashed by what happened. Success blinded me to my internal misery for years. It took 40 years to realize that the "unpleasantness" at camp drove so much suffering in my life, and in the lives of those around me. Fortunately, I've been able to get help (from the dreaded "psychs," of course) that has allowed me to be much happier. But I would have happily traded the Global Capitalism HQ jet, a couple of the yachts, all the supermodels and maybe even the waterfront estate for the wisdom to have sought and received help decades before.

My sympathies are with those in the cult, most of whom have been abused for far longer than I was. I truly hope they get out and get help. It is possible to not only survive what's happened but to thrive. My inner landscape today is proof of that.

And I will conclude by saying: two in five women will be sexually abused over their lifetime, many in childhood and a large number in adulthood. Something like one in six or seven men will, and most of those will be in childhood. There are tens of thousands of daily Bunker readers, so thousands of you have been sexually abused. So if you have been abused, you are most definitely not alone. You do not need to suffer in silence. There are resources who offer effective help, and it is often free. You can be free of what happened and live a much happier life. The scariest moment on the road to recovery is the one right before you pick up the phone.
Make the call. End added text.

-------------------------

People who know me well know that there is no cause that I feel more passionately about than childhood sexual abuse. Causes in that area receive the largest slice of my charitable giving. Two family members had their lives destroyed by molestation, and in one case it was due to sexual abuse by clergy.

The Catholic church deserves condemnation for the sheer size of its clerical abuse problems, though it has tried to address these. Some of those efforts have been earnest and successful, while others in the church continue to thwart reform. But on the whole, the direction is positive. The far more decentralized Protestant church is still, for the most part, in denial. And it lacks the central management structure that is able to decide to clean up the problem. So there is a very long way to go, particularly among fire-breathing fundamentalist types, which are far more high-control groups than most mainstream churches.

But Scientology is perhaps unique as a breeding ground for sexual abuse. Its highly controlling structure leads me to guess that the density of sexual abuse among children in the cult is higher than in almost any religious group of significant size. There are small isolated groups like the Christian cult run by now-convicted molester Victor Barnard in rural Minnesota, and there are somewhat larger groups like the FLDS cult in Utah and other locations who use polygamy as a way to justify the abuse of teenage women by leaders, turning it into a sacrament. Those may have a higher density of abuse because of small size, or in the case of FLDS, because the cult is made up of a handful of very large extended families.

But there are few examples of a group as large as Scientology made up of individuals who aren't closely related that have as significant a problem.

Scientology is, of course, the most blatant "religion" around in terms of demanding that members sacrifice everything to the success of the group, and it has the most significant punitive apparatus of any religion to detect thoughtcrime. So anyone who is disloyal to the group has little chance of being on staff. The odds that anyone on staff would report a pedophile to the outside is essentially nil.

And Scientology's perverted system of "ethics" always seems to find in favor of the largest donors, justified in terms of "the greatest good for the greatest number of dynamics." Though all pedophiles are at low risk for being prosecuted, the odds of punishment for sexual abuse drops to zero for large donors.

Thus, Scientology becomes a pedophile's wet dream: a baby farm where, for a large enough donation, anything is possible. It's hard to imagine a more unspeakable horror for the children trapped in that web. Particularly those at Canyon Oaks Ranch, isolated hours away from their parents in a remote section of LA County. One can only imagine the horrors that those kids must endure, abandoned by anyone who has even the slightest bit of care and compassion, and potentially groomed for the predators in the cult.

While it is a long road to recovery, litigation, particularly in California, can lead to awards of damages even decades after the abuse, if it was covered up by the church. I hope that the victims of the cult's policies are able to find healing and closure, whether it is through litigation or through therapy and support of others.


Comment 1.

http://tonyortega.org/2017/08/15/leah-remini-goes-there-child-molestation-in-scientology-for-tonights-aftermath-premiere/
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« Reply #51 on: September 12, 2017, 07:49:05 AM »

 John P. • 8 hours ago  11th Sept 2017

There's an interesting juxtaposition between today's news and yesterday's story about the preparations for the Birmingham Ideal Org opening that is worth pointing out.

On the one hand, the main theme of the Birmingham Ideal Org opening is that they're going to really do it right by applying standard Hubbard "admin tech" for the first time in a long time. Of course, that's a joke because "admin tech" was nonsensically bad when it was created, and, 60 years later, is ludicrously obsolete. And of course they can't change it because everything in it, including washing windows with newspaper (which will vanish in another generation) is prescribed by Hubbard's holy writ, which is "proof" of Hubbard's brilliance.

It doesn't really matter whether you do standard "admin tech" or whether you do a "squirreled" version. Just like it doesn't matter whether you do the incantation to summon pink flying unicorns from the book or make up your own. Either way, it just won't work. In the case of "admin tech," it's worse than ineffective unicorn spells: admin tech makes every organization it touches run less effectively because of its inability to adapt to the unique needs of a particular organization, and because of how it creates myriad "perverse incentives" (a real term from economics; look it up) that ultimately undermine the health of an organization.

But it is interesting to see that they're retreating to the fundamentalist trap in trying to avoid yet another ignominious failure. When you do something that doesn't work, normally, there are three ways to fix it: do more of it, improve what you're trying to do, or to do something different. But since "admin tech" is perfect, you can't improve it and you can't do a different process. Therefore, you're left with the obviously insane need to do more of what doesn't work -- that's your only option.

At the same time, you've got the customer base in the largest concentration of Scientologists in the world reaching fatigue. They just can't keep up the thought stopping any longer as there are too many negative mentions in the media of Scientology to ignore. And when Miscavige is having people write in to critique the show on the "stop Leah" petition (all 6,000 signers and all 1,700 of those who left a comment), some will inevitably wonder why, if there's so much expansion, so few people have signed the petition. And yes, some will watch the show as a result and will blow.

So will the retreat to Clearwater work? In some cases, it will keep the fire-breating true believers in a bubble that will keep them comfortable. On the other hand, it will have one potentially fatal side effect: as the true believers retreat to Clearwater, so too will all the "regges" that roam the country and extract cash from anyone they can get to come to an event. These hungry predators will be so desperate for cash from a shrinking pool that they will be hitting up the members in Clearwater 24x7, which I've heard from some quarters is already happening. The shrinking donor pool will be treated to loud knocks on the door at 2:00 am, if they're not already.

The rank and file first-generation crowd will be further alienated and the only people who will enjoy living in Clearwater will be the whales with enough money and clout to work out a deal with their regges at the beginning of the year to give a certain amount as long as they're not disturbed the rest of the year. Nancy Cartwright does not get 50 calls a day from various arms of the cult demanding her cash or her attendance at events. So in 10 years, if this trend continues, you'll have Clearwater populated entirely by whales and the rank and file will have died off or left in digsust, trying to salvage some sort of retirement and some sort of relationship with their kids.


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https://tonyortega.org/2017/09/11/hurricane-leah-the-defenses-are-crumbling-scientology-in-los-angeles-is-dying/
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« Reply #52 on: January 02, 2018, 06:13:40 AM »

                                 My Predictions for Scientology in 2018

http://www.johnpcapitalist.com/2018/01/my-predictions-for-scientology-in-2018/
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